European Championships 2014: schedule and preview

SCHEDULE

Wednesday 15th:

10.30 Ladies short

17.30 Short Dance

Thursday 16th:

11.45 Men short

18.25 Free Dance

Friday 17th:

13.30 Pairs short                  

17.50 Ladies free skate

Saturday 18th:

12.05 Men free skate

Sunday 19th:
11.00 Pairs free skate                                           

The 2014 European Championships will take place this week (13-19 January) in Budapest (GMT +1).
It will be the last chance to test programs and technical status before the Olympics in Febraury for many skaters.

The probably strongest field will be the ladies', whose short will open the week of competition. As last year, it is expected to be a Kostner against the Russian girls fight. For Leonova, Lipnitskaya and Sotnikova Europeans won't be just a test before the home Olympics, but also a qualifying competition, since Russia earned two spots for Sochi. Considering the latest outcomes, Lipnitskaya and Sotnikova are very likely to qualify and make the podium. For Lipnitskaya it is going to be her debut at senior European Championships. Althought she is a very strong competitor, she doesn't quite have the experience or maturity of Sotnikova (who is more a rollercoaster instead) and if her compatriot pulls it off as she has done a couple of times this season, she probably wouldn't be able to beat her.

As far as Carolina Kostner is concerned, there is no doubt that she is the most mature artistic and sophisticated skater of the bunch, but her jumps haven't been her best lately and she is coming from a back injury, that caused her to withdraw from Universiade and Nationals, so that is possible that she won't compete at her best in Budapest. She has changed both of her programs which didn't impress as others and she will debut a new short pogram on Ave Maria; as for the free skate, she came back to the Bolero program of last year.

In the men competition, Javier Fernandez will try to defend his title after a disappointing fall season. The Spanish champion hasn't been impressive with his grand prix outings as he missed the podium twice and therefore didn't qualify for the final. His performances in Budapest will make his state of preparation clearer.

Maxim Kovtun is a serious medal contender since he is showing constant improvements; his quads are getting more consistent and he has had a good season, which might help him closing the "components" gap with Fernandez.

For the rest of the field the competition is as open as never before: Michal Brezina will try to defend his bronze medal, but his compatriot Tomas Verner, after few very negative seasons, looks incredibly strong (he hasn't competed in any A competition, though). Florent Amodio is in the mix too, even if his latest competitions haven't been brilliant, especially the Bompard Trophy, where he hardly landed any jumps at all.

The dance event is going to be the most peculiar of all as none of the present skaters have ever won the title before. Infact, both Bobrova/Soloviev and Pechalat/Bourzat decided to not compete in this pre-olympic appointment leaving the podium door wide open.

Ilinykh/Katsalapov and Cappellini/Lanotte are for sure the front-runners of the competition. Cappellini/Lanotte have had a consistent season so far, and if the previous results should be an indication of how Europeans will be, they should be going for gold. The Italian team has already competed against the Russians and beated them at the NHK Trophy and qualified for the grand prix final whereas Ilinykh/Katsalapov didn't. The couple trained by Morozov has alternated ups and downs during the fall season so that it is difficult to foresee what is going to happen, but if they skate somehow clean their higher components will bring them ahead of the Italians.

As for the bronze medal, Riazanova/Tkachenko will likely earn it.

Savchenko/Szolkowy and Volosozhar/Trankov will compete face to face another time before the Olympics. The European gold and silver will surely be theirs, but there is no certainty about who is going to be crown the champions. Volosozhar/Trankov looked unbeatable all season long untill the Grand Prix final where the German team overskated them for the first time since Worlds 2012. In many's opinion, Savchenko/Szolkowy finally won that competition because they decided to leave out the throw triple axel, a very worthy, yet extremely risky element that didn't seem to work so well in competition. Going clean is often a strategy that pays back, however the Fukuoka victory wasn't earned just by avoiding a difficult jump, but also because Volosozhar/Trankov made some mistakes there. The world champions proved that they are human, but that even with a struggling skate they can earn a pretty decent score. Considering that Volosozhar/Trankov would be at their best for when it counts, Savchenko/Szolkowy may very well need that triple axel.

The bronze medal chances are open to Stolbova/Klimov, Bazarova/Larionov and Berton/Hotarek, the defending champions, who have been the most consistent of the bunch, but are slightly inferior to their Russian competitors in terms of quality of some elements (the triple twist for one) and components. 

Post Grand Prix toughts: Ice Dance

THE BATTLE OF THE TITANS

The Grand Prix Final has clearly showed how much both teams want to be the leaders of the sport and how hard they will work towards the Olympic gold in Sochi.

Virtue/Moir, who had never beaten Davis/White in the last four competition (WTT 2012, GPF 2012, 4CC 2013 and Worlds 2013), probably had their best two programs in this quadriennal in the Final in Fukuoka, scoring two personal bests and getting a level four on 13 elements out of 14, as well as stellar GOEs and components. Their result was quite a surprise, especially in the free dance in which they have been struggling throughtout the fall season, as they were absolutely flawless and technically impecable.

Yet, a total score of 190 (more than 30 points above the bronze medalists) wasn't enough to get that one gold that is still missing.

Davis/White proved to be not only as strong as their Canadian team-mates, but also to be two incredibly strong competitors, who didn't seem to feel any pressure from two world records scored just before they were about to skate. As far as levels are concerned, they equaled Virtue/Moir but they had an edge on GOEs and components.

With Virtue/Moir closing the gap with Davis/White, the fight for olympic gold seems as open as ever and the slightest mistake could be significant. So anything can really happen and what is sure is that Sochi's gold and silver are locked between these two teams.

THE BRONZE MEDAL ROULETTE

As for now, there are at least four teams who cuold fine themselves on the Olympic podium in February. The Grand Prix final crowned Pechalat/Bourzat bronze medalists but in fact that says nothing about how the season will unfold, but makes predictions more and more confused.

Bobrova/Soloviev, who were third after the short dance, failed again with their free skate whose transitions caused them a fall for the second time in a row. Weaver/Poje looked very strong at Skate Canada but struggled in Fukuoka getting in fifth place. On the other side, Pechalat/Bourzat had an amazing free skate, but they haven't been consistent in the season so far.

Besides, Ilinykh/Katsalapov had a very unlucky grand prix assignment and as they ranked fourth at NHK Trophy they couldn't qualify for the final, but they redeemed themselves after one week winning the silver medal at TEB in Paris beating Pechalat/Bourzat on the home ice.

Golden Spin of Zagreb 2013

Golden Spin of Zagreb, one of the most prestigious B skating competition in the fall season, will take place in the Croatian capital from 5th untill 8th of December. The competition that so often hosts high level, skaters this year lists some elite athletes, especially in the ladies event.

The Golden Spin will be in the spotlight of many fans as it has been chosen as the season-debuting competition by Yuna Kim, who has missed the entire grand prix season due to an injury had in September. It seems that the injury had been caused by over-training, so that the Korean Olympic champion had decided to avoid an early appereance on the international stage and opted for a competition schedule very similar to that that brought her to win Worlds last year. She will therefore debut her programs, Send in Clowns for the short and Adios Nonino by Piazzolla for the free skate. Taking place simultanously with the grand prix final, comparisons between her and the other female skaters competing in Fukuoka, Mao Asada above all, will be immediate.

Yuna Kim won't be the only elite skater in the ladies event, as Miki Ando and Elizaveta Tuktamisheva will be in Zagreb as well. Miki Ando, who will participate at Japanese Nationals in the next month, is slowly coming back to the competitive skating by attending several B competitions. She is not as solid as she used to be before 2011: she has competed at Nebelhorn Trophy, where she ranked second behind Radionova, and in Graaz last week where she was beated by Courtney Hicks. Her strategy seems to go in the direction of presenting a relatively simple jumping content in order to nail everything as planned.

Elizaveta Tuktamisheva is supposed to compete as well. Her fall season has been a rollercoaster due to phisical problems and she will need a good outing to build up her confidence towards the Olympic qualification at Russian Nationals.

In the men event, Michal Brezina is the frontrunner whose goal is to put together two clean performances with the quad salchow that seems to be starting to work.

SCHEDULE
5-8 dic
Thursday, 5th December
 17.30 short dance
 20.30 men short

Friday, 6th December
13.40 ladies short
16.45 pairs short
19.00 free dance

Saturday, 7th December
11.00 Men free skate
13.30 pairs free skate
15.10 ladies free skate

Rostelecom Cup ladies preview

In the ladies event, Carolina Kostner is the only one who has to fight her way in order to qualify for the final. Julia Lipnitskaia instead is pretty sure to go to Fukuoka as she won at Skate Canada with a brilliant score that should allow her to get a spot to the final even if she ranks fourth at Cup of Russia (goal more than achievable for her).

The former world champion got the bronze medal at Cup of China, where she was expected to win, and therefore she needs to win in Moscow or score something close to two hundreds points overall (she would need to score higher that Radionova did at NHK Trophy). Carolina had a tough competition in China and she didn’t look as consistent as she has been in the past years, struggling on several jumps maybe due to a back injury had in September that prevented her from having  a solid preparation. She has an edge over Lipnitskaia when it comes to the components score, but if she doesn’t compete somewhat clean, she won’t make up with the technical content of the young Russian skater.

Talking about Russian skaters, Elizaveta Tuktamisheva is listed to compete at Cup of Russia too, but her participation is still in doubt due to a back injury. She wouldn’t be in the final contention anyway, so withdrawing could be a wise decision, even though she may want to have the highest exposure to competitions as possible.

Kanako Murakami is looking for a better performance as well as at Cup of China she performed way below her standards. She can’t fight for the final as well but a good competition may help her in order to get an Olympic spot.

Rostelecom Cup Men preview

In the men competition, two are the skaters who aims for the final: Tatsuki Machida and Maxim Kovtun. Tatsuki Machida of Japan surprised anyone by winning the title at Skate America where not only did he make the final a very achievable goal, but also showed himself as a tough contender to get a spot in the Japanese Olympic team. Winning a Grand prix event he gained 15 points in the standings and he needs to rank no lower than fourth in order to qualify for the final.

The qualification will be slightly more difficult for Maxim Kovtun, who got the silver medal at Cup of China and therefore needs at least another silver medal. Kovtun is still a very young skater (he debuted in the senior circuit some months ago at Europeans) and may not have the experience to nail a crucial competition in front of the home crowd yet as he will have the attentions on himself as Plushenko has recently withdrawn. Come what may, it is pretty reasonable to consider him a medal favorite given the difficulty of his programs that feature five quads and three triple axels in total.

Surprisingly not in the battle for the final, Javier Fernandez will want here to redeem himself after a not so brilliant competition at NHK Trophy where he ranked fifth. He won’t qualify for the final even if he wins the competition, but as a reigning world medalist it would be important for him to compete according to his standards and giving himself a boost of confidence as the Olympic season progresses. He claimed that after NHK Trophy some judges advised him  to go back to the Chaplin free program of last year, and it will be interesting to see whether he took or not that advice.

Trophee Eric Bompard Men and Ladies Preview

In the Men event at Trophee Eric Bompard, Patrick Chan is the absolute frontrunner， as he demonstrated to be quite ready for the Olympic season at Skate Canada, where he wasn’t perfect, but good enough to win by a landslide. His main competitors are Yuzuru Hanyu, who came in second at Skate Canada, and Han Yan, who made history being the first Chinese man to win a grand prix senior competition ever.

As far as grand prix final qualification is concerned, both Chan and Yan are sure to achieve it as long as they reach the podium at Trophee Bompard , while for Hanyu the question is more complicated; he is bound to go to the final just if he wins the competition (result that he could pursue skating the way he did at Finlandia Trophy where he pulled off an incredible free skate) and he needs to get on the podium to have a chance to qualify, but even then he will have to wait to see how the Rostelecom cup unfolds.

Talking about the ladies, the competition, and therefore the battle for the final, will be between Ashley Wagner, Adelina Sotnikova and Anna Pogorilaya. Ashley Wagner, winner of the silver medal at Skate America and TEB defending champion, is the favorite for the gold. She usually is very solid and consistent during the fall season and with the new entry of the triple flip-triple toe she is the very probable winner of the next grand prix competition.

Anna Pogorilaya is the surprising winner of Cup of China. That has to be said that the quality of the overall competition wasn’t exceptional and Anna, debuting there in the senior grand prix, outskated Sotnikova and world champion Kostner with two clean programs filled in with triple-triples getting a 180ish total score. However, with her win, she is in a good track to get to the final since all she needs to do is to get on the podium this week (or even a fourth place finish will do).  Aiming to the final as well, Adelina Sotnikova got the silver at Cup of China. She was very solid in the short program, in which if she hits her jumps she gets a lot of points for the quality of her skating, her spins and steps. She is not that consistent in the free skate instead, where she usually struggles on several elements. As she has already won a silver medal, a second place finish should assure her the final.

NHK Ladies preview

The ladies event at NHK Trophy will be highlighted by the presence of Mao Asada who, after winning Skate America three weeks ago, has become the first lady to win all of the six grand prix events in her career. Moreover, considering that she could pull off a similar competition as she did in her first grand prix, she is a big favorite even  on home ice. Her triple axel is not a completely solid element for her yet and she still has some issues with under-rotating jumps, but her performances are successful overall and she is much more mature and appreciated  by the judges as far as components score is concerned.

There will be other two Japanese ladies at NHK: Akiko Suzuki and Satoko Miyahara.  For Akiko Suzuki this is going to be the second grand prix, having skated at Skate Canada where she got the silver medal behind Julia Lipnitskaia. She skated strong overall, despite some mistakes that caused her the gold medal and is looking for at least a silver medal here.  Satoko Miyahara, instead, is debuting internationally in the senior circuit. Satoko has a tendency to under-rotate her jumps, but when she hits them she become a very pleasant and artistic skater.

Elena Radionova and Gracie Gold will be aiming for a medal as well. Elena , competing in the senior circuit for the first year, has won the bronze medal at Skate America. Although she might be considered the most promising skater among the young Russians, she is not at consistent as others and the gap in the components score with the veterans ladies is, in case of an overall clean competition, bound not to be made up. Gracie Gold surprised everyone gaining a brilliant score in the short program despite having had a tough early season due to coaching changes. Frank Carroll seems to have done a great job with her and she might improve visibly after a couple of weeks.  

PODIUM PICKS:
Gold: Mao Asada
Silver: Akiko Suzuki
Bronze: Gracie Gold