Takahashi vs Chan

This is one of the most frequent questions heading to Worlds: can Daisuke Takahashi edge an apparently unbeatable Patrick Chan? 

A lot of people complain about Chan's results, saying he is way overscored, technically and artistically. Actually, no one can deny Patrick's skating ability, but sometimes it seems like he does some big mistakes and still he is on the top of the podium. 

On the other hand, Daisuke Takahashi might be the one capable of beating Chan, but he hasn't been consistant enough to do it. But what about if both deliver their skates? Who wins between a perfect Chan and a perfect Takahashi?

So, let's go deep inside the protocols.

Daisuke Takahashi short program at NHK 2011

Executed elements	Base value	Scores of Panel
3f-3t	9,4	11
3a	8,5	10,64
Fssp4	3	3,86
3lz	6	7,4
Ccsp2	2,3	2,87
Slst4	3,9	5,8
Ccosp4	3,5	4,57
Total	36,6	46,14

Total score: 90,43      TES: 46,14      PCS: 44,29


Patrick Chan short program at 4CC 2012

Executed elements	Base value	Scores of Panel
4t	10,3	7,3
3a	8,5	9,93
Ccosp3	3	3,93
3lz-3t	10,1	11,2
Fssp4	3	3,86
Ccsp4	3,2	3,91
Slst4	3,9	5,6
Total	42	45,73

Total score: 87,95      TES: 45,73     PCS: 42,22

So, Daisuke owns the best short of the season (see the nine best scores of the season here) but his base value is lower than Chan's. Indeed the answer is GOE. The grade of execution plays a huge part in determining a score. The matter is not doing the hardest jumps, but doing them well enough to assure a positive grade of execution. Choosing for a "simpler" but cleaner short is a safe, but a lot of times wit decision. Actually, Chan struggled a little bit in his 4CC short. He didn't nail his opening 4t-3t that always pumps up his score. I think that Takahashi is going to try for a different short at worlds, considering his attempt to land a quad toe at the beggining of his 4CC short.

Quads will be a key point in determining who's going to take the lead.

Things become more difficult in considering free skate.

Patrick Chan free skate at 4CC

Executed elements	Base value	Scores of Panel
4t-3t	14,4	16,54
4t	10,3	12,16
3a	8,5	9,93
Cist4	3,9	5,4
Fccosp3	3	3,86
3lz-1lo-3s	11,77	12,17
3lo	5,61	6,61
3f	5,83	6,93
Cssp4	3	4,14
3lz	6,6	6
2a	3,63	4,56
Chst1	2	3,6
Ccosp3	3	3,93
Total	81,54	95,83

Total score: 185,99    TES: 95,83     PCS:90,16

Daisuke Takahashi free skate at Grand Prix Final

Executed elements	Base value	Scores of Panel
4t	10,3	7,73
3a	8,5	10,36
3s	4,2	4,8
Ccsp2	2,3	2,56
Cist4	3,9	5,5
Fccosp4	3,5	4
3a-3t	13,86	15,43
3f-2t	7,26	7,96
3lo	5,61	5,71
3lz-2t	8,03	8,63
3f	5,83	6,63
Chst1	2	3,5
Ccosp4	3,5	4,21
Total	78,79	85,58

Total score: 172,63   TES:85,58      PCS: 87,05

In this case Patrick Chan owns the best score (see the twelve best scores of the season here) 

Here the advantage caused by a nicely executed element is clear. Chan earned almost 14 points of goe against Takahashi's 7. 

Takahashi's weak point is his quad toe, while his triple axel is very well scored.

Chan has two quads and seven triples, Takahashi one quad and eight triples. Chan's technical elements base value is three points ahead Takahashi's and the components score are five points above, but if Daisuke manages to skate even better his performance score can improve.

In conclusion, while the two skaters are really close in the short, Chan has more possibilities of nailing his free, considering his consistancy on quads is higher than Takahashi's, but Takahashi has room for improvement and could snatch the gold out of Chan's hands.