NHK Trophy preview

The NHK Trophy is the last of the grand prix events of the 2014-2015 season before the final in Barcelona. Here are my podium predictions.

MEN

1. Yuzuru Hanyu: no matter what you throw at him he will always pull it off. Yuzuru Hanyu might not be at his best, considering the serious injury he has been exposed to in his last grand prix appereance. In fact, after the collision with Han Yan at Cup of China, he spent several days out of practice in order to fully recover. He claimed that he is determined to compete at his home competition, and, as brian Orser claimed, he has been training for 9 days landing all jumps, inclding quads. His strategy should be to water down a little bit his extremely demanding programs to get the qualification for the final.

2. Takahito Mura: he surprisingly won at Skate Canada defeating Javier Fernandez. he probably doesn't have the same sofistication of Hanyu and Machida, however he was able to get a monstrous 173 in his free skate which featured two quads and two triple axels.

3.Alexei Voronov: he is not his federation's favourite as well, but at Rostelecom Cup he pulled off two incredible performances, especially in the short program. His technical prowess will very likely puti him ahead of the other talented but inconsistent skaters of this event.

DANCE

1. Weaver/Poje: prediction is made very easy here. The leading Canadian dance team is in a very good place to win their second grand prix event in Japan. Their main goal will rather be scoring enough to send a message to the other dance teams who have won the other grand prixs. In fact, both Chock/Bates and Papadakis/Cizeron have scored incredibly high in the last few weeks, and performing well during this weekend is absolutely key for the rest of Weaver/Poje's season.

2. Coomes/Buckland: they have also dramatically improved in this fall season. They got their first grand prix medal (a bronze) in Russia two weeks ago. Their free skate was spot on, but they bombed the short program technique wise, so they have still room for improvement.

3. Sinitsina/Katsalapov: one of the weirdest thing of this grand prix season is that Ilinykh/Zhiganshin's grand prix final qualification will occur just if Sinitsina/Katsalapov get into the second place here in Japan. This couple debuted at Cup of Russia for the first time, where they performed pretty decently. 

LADIES

1. Gracie Gold: the ladies event at NHK Trophy is a very peculiar one for the fact that none of the ladies has ranked more than third in a previous grand prix. Gracie Gold, Satoko Miyahara and Kanako Murakami are the ones who got a podium position so far in the series. Even though a lot of promising and talented skaters are listed in the NHK entries, no one really stood out in this fall season and anything could happen. I am predicting Gracie Gold to be the winner because she is the most consistent out of the "more experienced" competitors and because she has been reported to have improved her condition after Skate America.

2. Kanako Murakami: she was very lucky to get on the podium at Cup of China, because her free skate performance was under any expectation. She was completely out of control during the first half of her program as she popped several jumps. That has to be said that the quality of her skating is incredible and she has all the potential to perform better in front of her home crowd.

3. Satoko Miyahara: Satoko has had a great season last year winning her first National Championships medal, which is quite something in Japan. She has a very good musicality and she schedules an interesting set of jumps. She tends to under rotate every now and then, but I believe that she has an edge over the others in this competition. The only one who could likely get on the podium is Polina Edmunds. However, the US silver medalist has two lutzes and two flips that are often considered a wrong edge. the result is that her technical score is negatively affected by this call.

PAIRS

1.Kavaguti/Smirnov vs Duhamel/Radford: honestly, both Kavaguti/Smirnov and Duhamel/Radford could win this competition, as the scores they previously got are very similar, and technical content is almost the same for the two couples. As far as free skate is concerned, they both dare a throw quad salchow that they both nailed in their last grand prix. Duhamel/Radford have a slightly higher technical content as they schedule their famous triple lutz side by side; on the other hand Kavaguti/Smirnov have an edge on the second segment of the score due to their maturity, flow and overall skating quality.

3.Yu/Jin: the reigning world junior champions debuted in the senior circuit at Cup of China, where they made history for it being the first time a single nation got all three podium spots. They came in second there, but they didn't express all of their potential as they lost many points on an aborted lift. Assuming that they won't rank any higher than third at NHK Trophy, their goal is to score enough to get a ticket for the final in Barcelona. In order to achieve that, they will need o score more that Tarasova/Morozov did at Cup of Russia (around 173 points overall).

Cup of China Men's free skate recap

The men's free skate of Cup of China was going on in the most regular way when the most tragic warm up of the last years happened. If you didn't happen to get involved in the drama of this competition that is what briefly happened. During the warm up of the men's second group, Han Yan and Yuzuru Hanyu collided. They were both lying on the ice, when the warm up was interrupted and the injured athlets taken off the ice to be visited. 

About 15 minutes later the athletes were allowed a supplementary warm up. Han Yan, who was hit  on the shoulder and chin wasn't present, so that according to many it was clear that he had withdrawn from competition. Yuzuru Hanyu, who had apparently passed out because of a head concussion, appeared in the warm up with a bandage on his head. He nailed some jumps during those minutes but was clearly in pain. Video of the crash

As the second group started to skate, everyone was concerned with the health conditions of the two skaters and the whole competition was shadowed by the accident.

Nam Nguyen and Richard Dornbush both pulled off a very convincing free skate, with highs and lows. In particular Nam Nguyen did a similar skate as the one of Skate America with a very solid quad salchow and a couple of triple axels. Richard Dornbush, who got his first grand prix medal today, started very well but fell on a triple lutz and popped few jumps.

Han Yan decided to compete after all, and it has to be said that he tried anything he could for his crowd, but he didn't perform at his best, as obvious. Yuzuru Hanyu followed him. He proved to be able to fight during the whole program, tried two quads (he was scheduled to do three) but fell five times. He nailed an incredible triple axel-1loop-triple salchow, but apart from that the only high base value of his program held him into the second place overall. After the free skate he was absolutely exhausted, cried his heart out when he saw the result and after that needed to be carried away the kiss and cry. We could discuss if it was appropriate that his staff and the referee allowed him to skate. Brian Orser stated that Yuzuru was very determined to skate and was allowed to skate because it showed that he was not in severe conditions. However the Japanese Olympic champion is now being checked by doctors and nothing too serious should have happened.

Maxim Kovtun was the last to skate and appeared as shocked as anyone else in his free skate. He nailed a quad salchow and a triple axel, struggled throughout but managed to get his first gold grand prix medal.

Trophee Eric Bompard Men and Ladies Preview

In the Men event at Trophee Eric Bompard, Patrick Chan is the absolute frontrunner， as he demonstrated to be quite ready for the Olympic season at Skate Canada, where he wasn’t perfect, but good enough to win by a landslide. His main competitors are Yuzuru Hanyu, who came in second at Skate Canada, and Han Yan, who made history being the first Chinese man to win a grand prix senior competition ever.

As far as grand prix final qualification is concerned, both Chan and Yan are sure to achieve it as long as they reach the podium at Trophee Bompard , while for Hanyu the question is more complicated; he is bound to go to the final just if he wins the competition (result that he could pursue skating the way he did at Finlandia Trophy where he pulled off an incredible free skate) and he needs to get on the podium to have a chance to qualify, but even then he will have to wait to see how the Rostelecom cup unfolds.

Talking about the ladies, the competition, and therefore the battle for the final, will be between Ashley Wagner, Adelina Sotnikova and Anna Pogorilaya. Ashley Wagner, winner of the silver medal at Skate America and TEB defending champion, is the favorite for the gold. She usually is very solid and consistent during the fall season and with the new entry of the triple flip-triple toe she is the very probable winner of the next grand prix competition.

Anna Pogorilaya is the surprising winner of Cup of China. That has to be said that the quality of the overall competition wasn’t exceptional and Anna, debuting there in the senior grand prix, outskated Sotnikova and world champion Kostner with two clean programs filled in with triple-triples getting a 180ish total score. However, with her win, she is in a good track to get to the final since all she needs to do is to get on the podium this week (or even a fourth place finish will do).  Aiming to the final as well, Adelina Sotnikova got the silver at Cup of China. She was very solid in the short program, in which if she hits her jumps she gets a lot of points for the quality of her skating, her spins and steps. She is not that consistent in the free skate instead, where she usually struggles on several elements. As she has already won a silver medal, a second place finish should assure her the final.